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Raon l'Etape vs Mulhouse — Coupe de France 2018

Raon l'Etape
Raon l'Etapeadvanced
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mulhouse
Mulhouse
P. Fall 58'
O. Hassidou 49'
V. Glaentzlin 53'
K. Amaouche 30'
11/29/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raon l'Etape19%
×Draw22%
Mulhouse59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raon l'Etape
1.04
Mulhouse
1.98

Mulhouse creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Raon l'Etape
1.57
Mulhouse
2.25

allows per match

Raon l'Etape
1.71
Mulhouse
0.50

finishing

Raon l'Etape+0.00on par
Mulhouse+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raon l'Etape ↓

Mulhouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Raon l'Etape or draw
41%
Raon l'Etape or Mulhouse
78%
Draw or Mulhouse
81%

Winning margin

Raon l'Etape wins by 2+
7%
Mulhouse wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Raon l'Etape 1+ goals
65%
Raon l'Etape 2+ goals
28%
Raon l'Etape 3+ goals
9%
Mulhouse 1+ goals
86%
Mulhouse 2+ goals
59%
Mulhouse 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Raon l'Etape (draw refunded)
25%
Mulhouse (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raon l'Etape at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Mulhouse away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raon l'Etape attack 1.57 + Mulhouse defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mulhouse attack 2.25 + Raon l'Etape defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Raon l'Etape scores more
19%
level
22%
Mulhouse scores more
59%

Mulhouse at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mulhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
K. Amaouche
49'
O. Hassidou
53'
V. Glaentzlin
58'
P. Fall
Raon
Mulhouse
Michael Grand
Manager: Michael Grand
H. Aibeche
Manager: H. Aibeche

Coupe de France: Raon l'Etape 2–2 Mulhouse

Raon l'Etape and Mulhouse drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on November 29, 2025.

Goals: K. Amaouche (30'), O. Hassidou (49'), V. Glaentzlin (53'), P. Fall (58').