Raon l'Etape 1–1 Biesheim: Result & Stats

Raon l'Etape

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Biesheim

K. Duminy 90+1'

R. Hayef 14'

11/16/2024

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade Paul Gasser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Raon l'Etape28%

×Draw23%

Biesheim49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raon l'EtapeExpected goals in this matchBiesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.85

Raon l'Etape

1.35

Biesheim

1.85

Biesheim creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

2.00

1.71

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Raon l'Etape

1.57

Biesheim

2.00

allows per match

Raon l'Etape

1.71

Biesheim

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raon l'Etape+0.00on par

Biesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raon l'Etape ↓

Biesheim →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Raon l'Etape or draw

51%

Raon l'Etape or Biesheim

77%

Draw or Biesheim

72%

Winning margin

Raon l'Etape wins by 2+

12%

Biesheim wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Raon l'Etape 1+ goals

74%

Raon l'Etape 2+ goals

39%

Raon l'Etape 3+ goals

15%

Biesheim 1+ goals

84%

Biesheim 2+ goals

55%

Biesheim 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Raon l'Etape (draw refunded)

36%

Biesheim (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Raon l'Etape at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Biesheim away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Raon l'Etape attack 1.57 + Biesheim defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Biesheim attack 2.00 + Raon l'Etape defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Raon l'Etape scores more

28%

level

23%

Biesheim scores more

49%

Biesheim at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Biesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Hayef

21'

M. Sedagondji← Y. Mambo

68'

A. Valbon← L. Daoudou

68'

J. Jacquat← A. Reppert

80'

J. Bérénice← L. Alves

90+1'

K. Duminy

Raon

Biesheim

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: F. Touileb

21'▲M. Sedagondji←▼Y. Mambo

Raon l'Etape substitutes

SedagondjiRodriguesRadisavljevicHolovkoSavran

Manager: V. Rychen

68'▲A. Valbon←▼L. Daoudou

68'▲J. Jacquat←▼A. Reppert

80'▲J. Bérénice←▼L. Alves

Biesheim substitutes

ValbonJacquatBéréniceGentnerBonsuMecissehaBouazza

Coupe de France: Raon l'Etape 1–1 Biesheim

Raon l'Etape and Biesheim drew 1-1 in Coupe de France on November 16, 2024.

Goals: R. Hayef (14'), K. Duminy (90+1').

The match was played at Stade Paul Gasser in Raon-l'Etape.

Raon l'Etape vs Biesheim — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Raon l'Etape 1–1 Biesheim