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Ranong United vs Sisaket — Thai League 2 2018

Ranong United
Ranong United
FT
1 – 0
Sisaket
Sisaket
3/31/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 34Ranong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ranong United40%
×Draw28%
Sisaket32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranong United
1.26
Sisaket
1.11

Ranong United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ranong United
1.27
Sisaket
1.00

allows per match

Ranong United
1.22
Sisaket
1.25

finishing

Ranong United+0.00on par
Sisaket+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranong United ↓

Sisaket →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ranong United or draw
68%
Ranong United or Sisaket
72%
Draw or Sisaket
60%

Winning margin

Ranong United wins by 2+
18%
Sisaket wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ranong United 1+ goals
72%
Ranong United 2+ goals
36%
Ranong United 3+ goals
13%
Sisaket 1+ goals
67%
Sisaket 2+ goals
30%
Sisaket 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ranong United (draw refunded)
55%
Sisaket (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranong United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Sisaket away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranong United attack 1.27 + Sisaket defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sisaket attack 1.00 + Ranong United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ranong United scores more
40%
level
28%
Sisaket scores more
32%

Ranong United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ranong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ranong United 1–0 Sisaket

Ranong United beat Sisaket 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Ranong Stadium in Ranong.