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Ranong United vs Raj Pracha — Thai League 2 2018

Ranong United
Ranong United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
11/27/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 16Ranong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ranong United46%
×Draw28%
Raj Pracha27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranong United
1.34
Raj Pracha
0.95

Ranong United creates 41% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ranong United
1.27
Raj Pracha
0.68

allows per match

Ranong United
1.22
Raj Pracha
1.41

finishing

Ranong United+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranong United ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ranong United or draw
73%
Ranong United or Raj Pracha
72%
Draw or Raj Pracha
54%

Winning margin

Ranong United wins by 2+
21%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ranong United 1+ goals
74%
Ranong United 2+ goals
39%
Ranong United 3+ goals
15%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
61%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
25%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ranong United (draw refunded)
63%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranong United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranong United attack 1.27 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Ranong United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ranong United scores more
46%
level
28%
Raj Pracha scores more
27%

Ranong United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ranong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ranong United vs Raj Pracha

Ranong United and Raj Pracha drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Ranong Stadium in Ranong.