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Ranong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Ranong United
Ranong United
FT
0 – 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Unknown 15'
2/22/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Ranong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ranong United36%
×Draw26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranong United
1.29
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

Ranong United
1.27
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.44

allows per match

Ranong United
1.22
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.31

finishing

Ranong United+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranong United ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ranong United or draw
62%
Ranong United or Nong Bua Pitchaya
74%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
64%

Winning margin

Ranong United wins by 2+
16%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ranong United 1+ goals
72%
Ranong United 2+ goals
37%
Ranong United 3+ goals
14%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
74%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
38%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ranong United (draw refunded)
49%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranong United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranong United attack 1.27 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.44 + Ranong United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ranong United scores more
36%
level
26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
38%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ranong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Ranong United 1-0 in Thai League 2 on February 22, 2020.

Goals: ? (15').

The match was played at Ranong Stadium in Ranong.