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Ranong United vs Nakhon Pathom — Thai League 2 2018

Ranong United
Ranong United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
11/19/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 14Ranong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ranong United36%
×Draw29%
Nakhon Pathom35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranong United
1.14
Nakhon Pathom
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

Ranong United
1.27
Nakhon Pathom
1.04

allows per match

Ranong United
1.22
Nakhon Pathom
1.01

finishing

Ranong United+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranong United ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ranong United or draw
65%
Ranong United or Nakhon Pathom
71%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
64%

Winning margin

Ranong United wins by 2+
15%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ranong United 1+ goals
68%
Ranong United 2+ goals
32%
Ranong United 3+ goals
11%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
68%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
31%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ranong United (draw refunded)
50%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranong United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranong United attack 1.27 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.04 + Ranong United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ranong United scores more
36%
level
29%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
35%

Ranong United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ranong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ranong United 0–2 Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Pathom beat Ranong United 2-0 in Thai League 2 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Ranong Stadium in Ranong.