Ranong United 1–0 Chainat: Result & Stats

Ranong United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chainat

3/15/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 28Ranong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ranong United42%

×Draw27%

Chainat31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ranong UnitedExpected goals in this matchChainat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.15

Ranong United

1.38

Chainat

1.15

Ranong United creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 105 away

1.27

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Ranong United

1.27

Chainat

1.07

allows per match

Ranong United

1.22

Chainat

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ranong United+0.00on par

Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranong United ↓

Chainat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ranong United or draw

69%

Ranong United or Chainat

73%

Draw or Chainat

58%

Winning margin

Ranong United wins by 2+

20%

Chainat wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ranong United 1+ goals

75%

Ranong United 2+ goals

40%

Ranong United 3+ goals

16%

Chainat 1+ goals

68%

Chainat 2+ goals

32%

Chainat 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ranong United (draw refunded)

57%

Chainat (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranong United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranong United attack 1.27 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chainat attack 1.07 + Ranong United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ranong United scores more

42%

level

27%

Chainat scores more

31%

Ranong United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ranong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff