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Ranong United vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ranong United
Ranong United
FT
2 – 0
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
3/24/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 32Ranong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ranong United39%
×Draw27%
Ayutthaya FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranong United
1.32
Ayutthaya FC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 101 away

creates per match

Ranong United
1.27
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Ranong United
1.22
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Ranong United+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranong United ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ranong United or draw
65%
Ranong United or Ayutthaya FC
73%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
61%

Winning margin

Ranong United wins by 2+
17%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ranong United 1+ goals
73%
Ranong United 2+ goals
38%
Ranong United 3+ goals
15%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
71%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
35%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ranong United (draw refunded)
53%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranong United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranong United attack 1.27 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Ranong United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ranong United scores more
39%
level
27%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
35%

Ranong United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ranong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ranong United vs Ayutthaya FC

Ranong United beat Ayutthaya FC 2-0 in Thai League 2 on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ranong Stadium in Ranong.