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Ranheim vs Øygarden — 1. Division 2018

Ranheim
Ranheim
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Øygarden
Øygarden
8/14/20201. Division1. Division · Round 9EXTRA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ranheim59%
×Draw19%
Øygarden22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranheim
2.54
Øygarden
1.52

Ranheim creates 67% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ranheim
2.01
Øygarden
1.33

allows per match

Ranheim
1.70
Øygarden
3.07

finishing

Ranheim+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ranheim or draw
78%
Ranheim or Øygarden
81%
Draw or Øygarden
41%

Winning margin

Ranheim wins by 2+
38%
Øygarden wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ranheim 1+ goals
92%
Ranheim 2+ goals
72%
Ranheim 3+ goals
46%
Øygarden 1+ goals
78%
Øygarden 2+ goals
45%
Øygarden 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ranheim (draw refunded)
73%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.70 · 99 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim attack 2.01 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.54

Øygarden attack 1.33 + Ranheim defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ranheim scores more
59%
level
19%
Øygarden scores more
22%

Ranheim at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ranheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Ranheim 6–1 Øygarden

Ranheim beat Øygarden 6-1 in 1. Division on August 14, 2020.

The match was played at EXTRA Arena in Ranheim.