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Ranheim vs Stromsgodset — 1. Division 2026

Ranheim
Ranheim
Preview
14:00
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
8/15/20261. Division1. Division · Round 18EXTRA Arena
43%
Stromsgodset
model favours
37%20%43%

92% of Ranheim’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
79%
over 2.5 goals
77%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ranheim37%
×Draw20%
Stromsgodset43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranheim
2.04
Stromsgodset
2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ranheim
2.07
Stromsgodset
2.71

allows per match

Ranheim
1.67
Stromsgodset
2.00

finishing

Ranheim+0.00on par
Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 79Under: 2179%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 77No: 2377%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ranheim or draw
57%
Ranheim or Stromsgodset
80%
Draw or Stromsgodset
63%

Winning margin

Ranheim wins by 2+
20%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ranheim 1+ goals
87%
Ranheim 2+ goals
60%
Ranheim 3+ goals
33%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
89%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
64%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Ranheim (draw refunded)
47%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 2.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim attack 2.07 + Stromsgodset defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Stromsgodset attack 2.71 + Ranheim defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ranheim scores more
37%
level
20%
Stromsgodset scores more
43%

Stromsgodset at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (92% and 70% over 2.5)
  • Ranheim score first in only 23% of matches
  • Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches
  • 30% of Ranheim’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ranheim
LLWLD
Stromsgodset
LDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ranheim face Stromsgodset (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Ranheim hosting Stromsgodset. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ranheim host Stromsgodset at EXTRA Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.