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Ranheim vs Sandnes ULF — 1. Division 2018

Ranheim
Ranheim
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sandnes ULF
Sandnes ULF
4/6/20241. Division1. Division · Round 2EXTRA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Ranheim50%
×Draw22%
Sandnes ULF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranheim
1.98
Sandnes ULF
1.46

Ranheim creates 36% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ranheim
2.01
Sandnes ULF
1.21

allows per match

Ranheim
1.70
Sandnes ULF
1.95

finishing

Ranheim+0.00on par
Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim ↓

Sandnes ULF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ranheim or draw
71%
Ranheim or Sandnes ULF
78%
Draw or Sandnes ULF
50%

Winning margin

Ranheim wins by 2+
28%
Sandnes ULF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ranheim 1+ goals
86%
Ranheim 2+ goals
59%
Ranheim 3+ goals
31%
Sandnes ULF 1+ goals
77%
Sandnes ULF 2+ goals
43%
Sandnes ULF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ranheim (draw refunded)
63%
Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.70 · 99 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.95 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim attack 2.01 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sandnes ULF attack 1.21 + Ranheim defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ranheim scores more
50%
level
22%
Sandnes ULF scores more
29%

Ranheim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ranheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Ranheim 3–1 Sandnes ULF

Ranheim beat Sandnes ULF 3-1 in 1. Division on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at EXTRA Arena in Ranheim.