Ranheim II 4–1 Surnadal: Result & Stats

Ranheim II

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Surnadal

6/14/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 10EXTRA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ranheim II70%

×Draw15%

Surnadal15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ranheim IIExpected goals in this matchSurnadal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.28

1.54

Ranheim II

3.28

Surnadal

1.54

Ranheim II creates 113% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

2.70

creates per match

0.69

2.40

allows per match

3.85

creates per match

Ranheim II

2.70

Surnadal

0.69

allows per match

Ranheim II

2.40

Surnadal

3.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ranheim II+0.00on par

Surnadal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim II ↓

Surnadal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Ranheim II or draw

85%

Ranheim II or Surnadal

85%

Draw or Surnadal

30%

Winning margin

Ranheim II wins by 2+

51%

Surnadal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ranheim II 1+ goals

96%

Ranheim II 2+ goals

83%

Ranheim II 3+ goals

62%

Surnadal 1+ goals

79%

Surnadal 2+ goals

45%

Surnadal 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ranheim II (draw refunded)

82%

Surnadal (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Surnadal away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim II attack 2.70 + Surnadal defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 3.28

Surnadal attack 0.69 + Ranheim II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ranheim II scores more

70%

level

15%

Surnadal scores more

15%

Ranheim II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ranheim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff