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Ranheim II vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Ranheim II
Ranheim II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
H. Gangstad 85'
S. Aarvag 16'
H. Opsahl 69'
C. Stensheim 42'
6/30/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 12EXTRA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ranheim II56%
×Draw19%
Kristiansund II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranheim II
2.58
Kristiansund II
1.70

Ranheim II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ranheim II
2.70
Kristiansund II
1.00

allows per match

Ranheim II
2.40
Kristiansund II
2.46

finishing

Ranheim II+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim II ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ranheim II or draw
75%
Ranheim II or Kristiansund II
81%
Draw or Kristiansund II
44%

Winning margin

Ranheim II wins by 2+
36%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ranheim II 1+ goals
92%
Ranheim II 2+ goals
72%
Ranheim II 3+ goals
47%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
82%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
51%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ranheim II (draw refunded)
69%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim II attack 2.70 + Kristiansund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.58

Kristiansund II attack 1.00 + Ranheim II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ranheim II scores more
56%
level
19%
Kristiansund II scores more
25%

Ranheim II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ranheim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
S. Aarvag
42'
C. Stensheim
69'
H. Opsahl
85'
H. Gangstad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Ranheim II 2–2 Kristiansund II

Ranheim II and Kristiansund II drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 30, 2025.

Goals: S. Aarvag (16'), C. Stensheim (42'), H. Opsahl (69'), H. Gangstad (85').

The match was played at EXTRA Arena in Ranheim.