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Ranheim II vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Ranheim II
Ranheim II
Preview
17:00
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
10/26/20263. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Round 25
48%
Ranheim II
model favours
48%20%32%

Ranheim II have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
79%
over 2.5 goals
77%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ranheim II48%
×Draw20%
Aalesund II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranheim II
2.33
Aalesund II
1.90

Ranheim II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ranheim II
2.70
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Ranheim II
2.40
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Ranheim II+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim II ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ranheim II or draw
68%
Ranheim II or Aalesund II
80%
Draw or Aalesund II
52%

Winning margin

Ranheim II wins by 2+
29%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ranheim II 1+ goals
90%
Ranheim II 2+ goals
67%
Ranheim II 3+ goals
41%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
85%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
56%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ranheim II (draw refunded)
60%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim II attack 2.70 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.33

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Ranheim II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ranheim II scores more
48%
level
20%
Aalesund II scores more
32%

Ranheim II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ranheim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 5.3 goals
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WWDDL
II
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ranheim II host Aalesund II

October 26, 2026: Ranheim II take on Aalesund II in 3. Division - Girone 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.