Ranheim II 3–2 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

Ranheim II

FT

3 – 2

Aalesund II

10/30/2021

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 13EXTRA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ranheim II24%

×Draw18%

Aalesund II58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ranheim IIExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.78

Ranheim II

1.77

Aalesund II

2.78

Aalesund II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

2.00

creates per match

1.85

3.71

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Ranheim II

2.00

Aalesund II

1.85

allows per match

Ranheim II

3.71

Aalesund II

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ranheim II+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim II ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Ranheim II or draw

42%

Ranheim II or Aalesund II

82%

Draw or Aalesund II

76%

Winning margin

Ranheim II wins by 2+

11%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Ranheim II 1+ goals

83%

Ranheim II 2+ goals

53%

Ranheim II 3+ goals

26%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

94%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

76%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Ranheim II (draw refunded)

29%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim II attack 2.00 + Aalesund II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Aalesund II attack 1.85 + Ranheim II defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ranheim II scores more

24%

level

18%

Aalesund II scores more

58%

Aalesund II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff