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Rangers vs Warriors — FA Cup 2020

Rangers
Rangers
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Warriors
Warriorsadvanced
12/2/2023FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finalsMong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rangers16%
×Draw15%
Warriors69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.52
Warriors
3.15

Warriors creates 107% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rangers
1.71
Warriors
3.00

allows per match

Rangers
3.29
Warriors
1.33

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
31%
Rangers or Warriors
85%
Draw or Warriors
84%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
7%
Warriors wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
78%
Rangers 2+ goals
45%
Rangers 3+ goals
20%
Warriors 1+ goals
96%
Warriors 2+ goals
81%
Warriors 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
19%
Warriors (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.71, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

Warriors away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.71 + Warriors defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Warriors attack 3.00 + Rangers defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rangers scores more
16%
level
15%
Warriors scores more
69%

Warriors at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Rangers 3–4 Warriors

Warriors beat Rangers 4-3 in FA Cup on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium in Hong Kong.