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Rangers vs Ross County — Premiership 2018

Rangers
Rangers
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ross County
Ross County
2/14/2024PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 20Ibrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Rangers69%
×Draw19%
Ross County12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
2.13
Ross County
0.77

Rangers creates 177% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 97 away

creates per match

Rangers
2.47
Ross County
0.88

allows per match

Rangers
0.65
Ross County
1.78

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Ross County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
88%
Rangers or Ross County
81%
Draw or Ross County
31%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
44%
Ross County wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
88%
Rangers 2+ goals
63%
Rangers 3+ goals
35%
Ross County 1+ goals
54%
Ross County 2+ goals
18%
Ross County 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
85%
Ross County (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.65 · 135 matches

Ross County away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.78 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.47 + Ross County defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ross County attack 0.88 + Rangers defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rangers scores more
69%
level
19%
Ross County scores more
12%

Rangers at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Rangers 3–1 Ross County

Rangers beat Ross County 3-1 in Premiership on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Ibrox Stadium in Glasgow.