Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rangers vs Raith Rovers — FA Cup 2019

Rangers
Rangersadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
3/12/2023FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finalsIbrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rangers69%
×Draw18%
Raith Rovers13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
2.33
Raith Rovers
0.91

Rangers creates 156% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Rangers
3.08
Raith Rovers
1.50

allows per match

Rangers
0.31
Raith Rovers
1.58

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
87%
Rangers or Raith Rovers
82%
Draw or Raith Rovers
31%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
46%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
90%
Rangers 2+ goals
67%
Rangers 3+ goals
41%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
60%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
23%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
84%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 3.08 + Raith Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Raith Rovers attack 1.50 + Rangers defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rangers scores more
69%
level
18%
Raith Rovers scores more
13%

Rangers at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Rangers 3–0 Raith Rovers

Rangers beat Raith Rovers 3-0 in FA Cup on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Ibrox Stadium in Glasgow.