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Rangers vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Rangers
Rangers
FT
2 – 0
New Jack
New Jack
3/11/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rangers42%
×Draw30%
New Jack27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.15
New Jack
0.86

Rangers creates 34% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rangers
1.03
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Rangers
1.14
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
73%
Rangers or New Jack
70%
Draw or New Jack
58%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
18%
New Jack wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
68%
Rangers 2+ goals
32%
Rangers 3+ goals
11%
New Jack 1+ goals
58%
New Jack 2+ goals
21%
New Jack 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
61%
New Jack (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.03 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

New Jack attack 0.59 + Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rangers scores more
42%
level
30%
New Jack scores more
27%

Rangers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Rangers 2–0 New Jack

Rangers beat New Jack 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.