Rangers 2–1 Livingston: Result & Stats

Rangers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Livingston

M. Diomande 78'

E. Fernandez 9'

T. Yengi 18'

11/22/2025

Premiership · 1st Phase - 13Ibrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Rangers62%

×Draw21%

Livingston17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RangersExpected goals in this matchLivingston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.98

Rangers

2.05

Livingston

0.98

Rangers creates 109% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.14

creates per match

0.98

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Rangers

2.14

Livingston

0.98

allows per match

Rangers

0.98

Livingston

1.96

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Rangers+0.03on par

Livingston-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Livingston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rangers or draw

83%

Rangers or Livingston

79%

Draw or Livingston

38%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+

38%

Livingston wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals

87%

Rangers 2+ goals

61%

Rangers 3+ goals

33%

Livingston 1+ goals

62%

Livingston 2+ goals

26%

Livingston 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)

78%

Livingston (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.98 · 12 matches

Livingston away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.14 + Livingston defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.05

Livingston attack 0.98 + Rangers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rangers scores more

62%

level

21%

Livingston scores more

17%

Rangers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Tavernier

Rangers · D

8.3

Match Events

9'

E. Fernandez↳ J. Tavernier

18'

T. Yengi↳ S. May

46'

B. Miovski← T. Aasgaard

59'

Jayden Meghoma

61'

R. McGowan← M. Tait

62'

Cristian Montano

64'

N. Bajrami← O. Antman

65'

A. Shinnie← C. Montano

71'

Samson Lawal

72'

J. Bokila← T. Yengi

72'

R. Muirhead← S. May

76'

J. Robinson← M. Sylla

78'

M. Diomande↳ B. Miovski

79'

Mohammed DiomandeGoal confirmed

81'

Nedim Bajrami

84'

M. Aarons← J. Meghoma

85'

Robbie Muirhead

90+1'

Mahamadou Susoho

90'

C. Barron← M. Diomande

90'

L. Cameron← D. Gassama

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RangersLivingston

Overview

73%Possession27%

9Total Shots9

1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.48

2Corners1

12Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots9

2On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

5Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

639Total Passes234

551Accurate Passes145

86%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides0