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Rangers vs Livingston — League Cup 2018

Rangers
Rangersadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Livingston
Livingston
9/27/2023League CupLeague Cup · Quarter-finalsIbrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rangers43%
×Draw24%
Livingston33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.66
Livingston
1.43

Rangers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rangers
2.38
Livingston
2.22

allows per match

Rangers
0.63
Livingston
0.94

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Livingston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
67%
Rangers or Livingston
76%
Draw or Livingston
57%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
22%
Livingston wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
81%
Rangers 2+ goals
49%
Rangers 3+ goals
23%
Livingston 1+ goals
76%
Livingston 2+ goals
42%
Livingston 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
56%
Livingston (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Livingston away — creates 2.22, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.38 + Livingston defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Livingston attack 2.22 + Rangers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rangers scores more
43%
level
24%
Livingston scores more
33%

Rangers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers vs Livingston

Rangers beat Livingston 4-0 in League Cup on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Ibrox Stadium in Glasgow.