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Rangers vs Genk — UEFA Europa League 2026

Rangers
Rangers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Genk
Genk
Oh Hyeon-Gyu 55'
9/25/2025UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rangers24%
×Draw25%
Genk50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.00
Genk
1.56

Genk creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rangers
0.50
Genk
2.13

allows per match

Rangers
1.00
Genk
1.50

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Genk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Genk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
50%
Rangers or Genk
75%
Draw or Genk
76%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
9%
Genk wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
63%
Rangers 2+ goals
26%
Rangers 3+ goals
8%
Genk 1+ goals
79%
Genk 2+ goals
46%
Genk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
33%
Genk (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Genk away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 0.50 + Genk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Genk attack 2.13 + Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rangers scores more
24%
level
25%
Genk scores more
50%

Genk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
James TavernierPenalty cancelled
41'
Mohammed Diomande
45+5'
Yaimar MedinaPenalty confirmed
46'
O. Antman← M. Moore
55'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu↳ J. Steuckers
56'
Hyun-gyu Oh
57'
Mujaid Sadick
64'
N. Adedeji-Sternberg← Y. Medina
71'
Hyun-gyu OhGoal cancelled
78'
Djeidi Gassama
79'
J. Rothwell← D. Cornelius
80'
C. Barron← T. Aasgaard
80'
B. Miovski← Chermiti
80'
K. Nkuba← J. Steuckers
80'
J. Erabi← Oh Hyeon-Gyu
81'
N. Sattlberger← I. Bangoura
90+4'
Zakaria El Ouahdi
90+1'
K. Karetsas← P. Hrosovsky

Possession

54%Rangers

Shots

11Rangers

Pass accuracy

50%Rangers

Statistics

RangersGenk
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots18
1.01Expected Goals (xG)2.94
4Corners2
13Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots18
2On Target4
4Off Target9
5Blocked5
7Inside Box16
4Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
471Total Passes422
419Accurate Passes374
89%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.06Goals Prevented0.06
Discipline
13Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Rangers vs Genk

Genk beat Rangers 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on September 25, 2025.

Goals: Oh Hyeon-Gyu (55').

Rangers controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 18.