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Rangers vs Don Bosco — Ligue 1 2019

Rangers
Rangers
FT
0 – 2
Don Bosco
Don Bosco
3/31/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Rangers38%
×Draw30%
Don Bosco32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.09
Don Bosco
0.99

Rangers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 96 away

creates per match

Rangers
1.03
Don Bosco
0.85

allows per match

Rangers
1.14
Don Bosco
1.16

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Don Bosco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
68%
Rangers or Don Bosco
70%
Draw or Don Bosco
62%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
15%
Don Bosco wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
66%
Rangers 2+ goals
30%
Rangers 3+ goals
10%
Don Bosco 1+ goals
63%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
26%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
54%
Don Bosco (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.03 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rangers scores more
38%
level
30%
Don Bosco scores more
32%

Rangers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rangers 0 – 2 Don Bosco

Don Bosco beat Rangers 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.