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Rangers vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Rangers
Rangers
FT
1 – 0
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
2/23/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rangers49%
×Draw26%
Bukavu Dawa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.50
Bukavu Dawa
0.97

Rangers creates 55% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rangers
1.03
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Rangers
1.14
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
76%
Rangers or Bukavu Dawa
74%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
51%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
25%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
78%
Rangers 2+ goals
44%
Rangers 3+ goals
19%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
62%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
25%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
67%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.03 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rangers scores more
49%
level
26%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
24%

Rangers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers vs Bukavu Dawa

Rangers beat Bukavu Dawa 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.