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Rangers vs Blessing — Ligue 1 2019

Rangers
Rangers
CANC
13:30
Blessing
Blessing
5/19/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Rangers37%
×Draw30%
Blessing32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.07
Blessing
0.97

Rangers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rangers
1.03
Blessing
0.81

allows per match

Rangers
1.14
Blessing
1.11

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Blessing+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Blessing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
68%
Rangers or Blessing
70%
Draw or Blessing
63%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
15%
Blessing wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
66%
Rangers 2+ goals
29%
Rangers 3+ goals
9%
Blessing 1+ goals
62%
Blessing 2+ goals
25%
Blessing 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
54%
Blessing (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Blessing away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.03 + Blessing defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Blessing attack 0.81 + Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rangers scores more
37%
level
30%
Blessing scores more
32%

Rangers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rangers face Blessing (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Rangers hosting Blessing. Match starts May 19, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rangers host Blessing at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.