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Rangers vs Ayr Utd — League Cup 2018

Rangers
Rangersadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
9/26/2018League CupLeague Cup · Quarter-finalsIbrox Stadium (Glasgow)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rangers49%
×Draw22%
Ayr Utd29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.92
Ayr Utd
1.42

Rangers creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Rangers
2.38
Ayr Utd
2.20

allows per match

Rangers
0.63
Ayr Utd
1.45

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Ayr Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
71%
Rangers or Ayr Utd
78%
Draw or Ayr Utd
51%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
28%
Ayr Utd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
85%
Rangers 2+ goals
57%
Rangers 3+ goals
30%
Ayr Utd 1+ goals
76%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
41%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
63%
Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.38 + Ayr Utd defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ayr Utd attack 2.20 + Rangers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rangers scores more
49%
level
22%
Ayr Utd scores more
29%

Rangers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers vs Ayr Utd

Rangers beat Ayr Utd 4-0 in League Cup on September 26, 2018.

The match was played at Ibrox Stadium (Glasgow).