Rangers U19 0–1 Sevilla U19: Result & Stats

Rangers U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sevilla U19

Carlos Álvarez 50'

2/8/2022

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsThe C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rangers U1943%

×Draw24%

Sevilla U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers U19Expected goals in this matchSevilla U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.46

Rangers U19

1.68

Sevilla U19

1.46

Rangers U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

0.82

2.11

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Rangers U19

2.00

Sevilla U19

0.82

allows per match

Rangers U19

2.11

Sevilla U19

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers U19+0.00on par

Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers U19 ↓

Sevilla U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rangers U19 or draw

66%

Rangers U19 or Sevilla U19

76%

Draw or Sevilla U19

57%

Winning margin

Rangers U19 wins by 2+

22%

Sevilla U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rangers U19 1+ goals

81%

Rangers U19 2+ goals

50%

Rangers U19 3+ goals

24%

Sevilla U19 1+ goals

77%

Sevilla U19 2+ goals

43%

Sevilla U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Sevilla U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers U19 attack 2.00 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sevilla U19 attack 0.82 + Rangers U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rangers U19 scores more

43%

level

24%

Sevilla U19 scores more

34%

Rangers U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rangers U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Carlos Álvarez

53'

T. Weston← J. Lindsay

55'

M. Miller

63'

R. McCausland

64'

A. Zarzana

72'

A. Lyall← R. McCausland

72'

Manuel Bueno← Diego Talaverón

77'

M. Exposito Jimenez

78'

C. Alvarez

81'

R. Wilson← R. Ure

86'

Juanan Aguilera← Antonio Zarzana

89'

E. Salas Valiente

89'

Gonzalo Guzmán← Alexandro Fernández

90'

A. Lowry

90+6'

J. A. Aguilera Barroso

90+7'

A. Weston

90+7'

L. King

Rangers

Sevilla

1

5

4

3

2

7

▼

Zarzana

8

Juanlu

6

Expósito

10

⚽

Álvarez

11

▼

Talaverón

9

▼

1

5

4

2

6

11

▼

8

7

3

10

▼

Lindsay

9

▼

Ure

Manager: D. McCallum

53'▲T. Weston←▼J. Lindsay

72'▲A. Lyall←▼R. McCausland

81'▲R. Wilson←▼R. Ure

Rangers U19 substitutes

17Weston16Lyall18Wilson21Budinauckas14Yfeko12Allen15Allan

Manager: Lolo Rosano

72'▲Manuel Bueno←▼Diego Talaverón

86'▲Juanan Aguilera←▼Antonio Zarzana

89'▲Gonzalo Guzmán←▼Alexandro Fernández

Sevilla U19 substitutes

17Bueno12Aguilera15Guzmán13Romero14Rivera16Salguero18Gonzalez

Match Recap: Rangers U19 vs Sevilla U19

Sevilla U19 beat Rangers U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 8, 2022.

Goals: Carlos Álvarez (50').

The match was played at The C&G Systems Stadium in Dumbarton.

Rangers U19 vs Sevilla U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rangers U19 vs Sevilla U19