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Rangers U19 vs Köln U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Rangers U19
Rangers U19
CANC
18:00
Köln U19
Köln U19
3/2/2021UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group StageThe Energy Check Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rangers U1927%
×Draw20%
Köln U1953%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers U19
1.67
Köln U19
2.39

Köln U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rangers U19
2.00
Köln U19
2.67

allows per match

Rangers U19
2.11
Köln U19
1.33

finishing

Rangers U19+0.00on par
Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers U19 ↓

Köln U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Rangers U19 or draw
47%
Rangers U19 or Köln U19
80%
Draw or Köln U19
73%

Winning margin

Rangers U19 wins by 2+
13%
Köln U19 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Rangers U19 1+ goals
81%
Rangers U19 2+ goals
50%
Rangers U19 3+ goals
23%
Köln U19 1+ goals
91%
Köln U19 2+ goals
69%
Köln U19 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Köln U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers U19 attack 2.00 + Köln U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Köln U19 attack 2.67 + Rangers U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rangers U19 scores more
27%
level
20%
Köln U19 scores more
53%

Köln U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rangers U19 face Köln U19 (UEFA Youth League)

UEFA Youth League returns with Rangers U19 hosting Köln U19. Match starts March 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rangers U19 host Köln U19 at The Energy Check Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.