Rangers U19 0–4 Atlético Madrid U19: Result & Stats

Rangers U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Madrid U19

Alberto Soto 89'

Mario Soriano 78'

Nacho Quintana 48'

Manuel Lama 6'

2/12/2020

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsThe Energy Check Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rangers U1931%

×Draw21%

Atlético Madrid U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers U19Expected goals in this matchAtlético Madrid U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

2.04

Rangers U19

1.62

Atlético Madrid U19

2.04

Atlético Madrid U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

2.00

creates per match

1.96

2.11

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Rangers U19

2.00

Atlético Madrid U19

1.96

allows per match

Rangers U19

2.11

Atlético Madrid U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers U19+0.00on par

Atlético Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers U19 ↓

Atlético Madrid U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Rangers U19 or draw

52%

Rangers U19 or Atlético Madrid U19

79%

Draw or Atlético Madrid U19

69%

Winning margin

Rangers U19 wins by 2+

15%

Atlético Madrid U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Rangers U19 1+ goals

80%

Rangers U19 2+ goals

48%

Rangers U19 3+ goals

22%

Atlético Madrid U19 1+ goals

87%

Atlético Madrid U19 2+ goals

60%

Atlético Madrid U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Atlético Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Atlético Madrid U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers U19 attack 2.00 + Atlético Madrid U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.62

Atlético Madrid U19 attack 1.96 + Rangers U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rangers U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Atlético Madrid U19 scores more

48%

Atlético Madrid U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Moreno

6'

Manuel Lama↳ Rodrigo Riquelme

45'

L. Maroto

48'

Nacho Quintana↳ Rodrigo Riquelme

52'

N. Young-Coombes← M. Miller

54'

N. Patterson

61'

Alberto Soto← F. Gutiérrez

63'

F. Medrano

73'

João Baldé← C. Palmer

73'

K. Ritchie-Hosler← J. McPake

78'

Mario Soriano↳ Rodrigo Riquelme

85'

A. Urbina← Marc Ureña

86'

Diego Alvarez← Rodrigo Riquelme

89'

Alberto Soto↳ Mario Soriano

90+2'

Carlos Rojas← Mario Soriano

90+2'

Adrián Grillo← Marco Moreno

Rangers

Atlético

1

Saldaña

3

Medrano

4

▼

Moreno

5

⚽

Lama

11

A

▼

Riquelme

6

Ferreras

2

Hayek

8

⚽

Quintana

7

▼

Gutiérrez

10

⚽A

▼

Soriano

9

▼

1

5

4

2

10

▼

Palmer

3

Maxwell

6

▼

Miller

8

Dickson

9

Mebude

7

▼

McPake

11

Kennedy

Manager: G. Murty

52'▲N. Young-Coombes←▼M. Miller

73'▲João Baldé←▼C. Palmer

73'▲K. Ritchie-Hosler←▼J. McPake

Rangers U19 substitutes

18Young-Coombes14Baldé17Ritchie-Hosler12Butterworth15McClelland21Hogarth16King

Manager: Carlos Gonzalez

61'▲Alberto Soto←▼F. Gutiérrez

85'▲A. Urbina←▼Marc Ureña

86'▲Diego Alvarez←▼Rodrigo Riquelme

90+2'▲Carlos Rojas←▼Mario Soriano

90+2'▲Adrián Grillo←▼Marco Moreno

Atlético Madrid U19 substitutes

16Soto12Urbina18Alvarez17Rojas14Grillo15Ortega13Fernández

Match Recap: Rangers U19 vs Atlético Madrid U19

Atlético Madrid U19 beat Rangers U19 4-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 12, 2020.

Goals: Manuel Lama (6'), Nacho Quintana (48'), Mario Soriano (78'), Alberto Soto (89').

The match was played at The Energy Check Stadium in Glasgow.

Rangers U19 vs Atlético Madrid U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rangers U19 vs Atlético Madrid U19