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Rangers FC vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Rangers FC
Rangers FC
FT
3 – 2
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
2/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rangers FC21%
×Draw25%
Young Buffaloes54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers FC
0.90
Young Buffaloes
1.61

Young Buffaloes creates 79% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

creates per match

Rangers FC
1.02
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Rangers FC
1.36
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Rangers FC+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers FC ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rangers FC or draw
46%
Rangers FC or Young Buffaloes
75%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
79%

Winning margin

Rangers FC wins by 2+
7%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Rangers FC 1+ goals
59%
Rangers FC 2+ goals
23%
Rangers FC 3+ goals
6%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
80%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
48%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rangers FC (draw refunded)
28%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers FC attack 1.02 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Rangers FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rangers FC scores more
21%
level
25%
Young Buffaloes scores more
54%

Young Buffaloes at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Rangers FC 3–2 Young Buffaloes

Rangers FC beat Young Buffaloes 3-2 in Premier League on February 28, 2026.