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Rangers FC vs Tinyosi — Premier League 2020

Rangers FC
Rangers FC
FT
2 – 0
Tinyosi
Tinyosi
2/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rangers FC38%
×Draw28%
Tinyosi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers FC
1.21
Tinyosi
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

creates per match

Rangers FC
1.02
Tinyosi
0.90

allows per match

Rangers FC
1.36
Tinyosi
1.40

finishing

Rangers FC+0.00on par
Tinyosi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers FC ↓

Tinyosi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rangers FC or draw
66%
Rangers FC or Tinyosi
72%
Draw or Tinyosi
62%

Winning margin

Rangers FC wins by 2+
16%
Tinyosi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rangers FC 1+ goals
70%
Rangers FC 2+ goals
34%
Rangers FC 3+ goals
12%
Tinyosi 1+ goals
68%
Tinyosi 2+ goals
31%
Tinyosi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rangers FC (draw refunded)
53%
Tinyosi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Tinyosi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers FC attack 1.02 + Tinyosi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tinyosi attack 0.90 + Rangers FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rangers FC scores more
38%
level
28%
Tinyosi scores more
34%

Rangers FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers FC vs Tinyosi

Rangers FC beat Tinyosi 2-0 in Premier League on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.