Rangers FC 3–2 Sidwashini United: Result & Stats

Rangers FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sidwashini United

10/19/2024

Premier League · Round 4King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rangers FC47%

×Draw27%

Sidwashini United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchSidwashini United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.02

Rangers FC

1.44

Sidwashini United

1.02

Rangers FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 13 away

1.02

creates per match

0.69

1.36

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Rangers FC

1.02

Sidwashini United

0.69

allows per match

Rangers FC

1.36

Sidwashini United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers FC+0.00on par

Sidwashini United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers FC ↓

Sidwashini United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rangers FC or draw

73%

Rangers FC or Sidwashini United

73%

Draw or Sidwashini United

53%

Winning margin

Rangers FC wins by 2+

23%

Sidwashini United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rangers FC 1+ goals

76%

Rangers FC 2+ goals

42%

Rangers FC 3+ goals

18%

Sidwashini United 1+ goals

64%

Sidwashini United 2+ goals

27%

Sidwashini United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rangers FC (draw refunded)

64%

Sidwashini United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Sidwashini United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers FC attack 1.02 + Sidwashini United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sidwashini United attack 0.69 + Rangers FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rangers FC scores more

47%

level

27%

Sidwashini United scores more

27%

Rangers FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff