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Rangers FC vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Rangers FC
Rangers FC
FT
0 – 0
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
11/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rangers FC25%
×Draw28%
Mbabane Swallows47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers FC
0.92
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

Mbabane Swallows creates 49% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 83 away

creates per match

Rangers FC
1.02
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Rangers FC
1.36
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Rangers FC+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers FC ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rangers FC or draw
53%
Rangers FC or Mbabane Swallows
72%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
75%

Winning margin

Rangers FC wins by 2+
9%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rangers FC 1+ goals
60%
Rangers FC 2+ goals
23%
Rangers FC 3+ goals
7%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
75%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
40%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rangers FC (draw refunded)
35%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers FC attack 1.02 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Rangers FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rangers FC scores more
25%
level
28%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
47%

Mbabane Swallows at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers FC vs Mbabane Swallows

Rangers FC and Mbabane Swallows drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.