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Rangers FC vs Madlenya — Premier League 2020

Rangers FC
Rangers FC
FT
0 – 0
Madlenya
Madlenya
10/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rangers FC45%
×Draw26%
Madlenya29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers FC
1.46
Madlenya
1.10

Rangers FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 41 away

creates per match

Rangers FC
1.02
Madlenya
0.85

allows per match

Rangers FC
1.36
Madlenya
1.90

finishing

Rangers FC+0.00on par
Madlenya+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers FC ↓

Madlenya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rangers FC or draw
71%
Rangers FC or Madlenya
74%
Draw or Madlenya
55%

Winning margin

Rangers FC wins by 2+
22%
Madlenya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rangers FC 1+ goals
77%
Rangers FC 2+ goals
43%
Rangers FC 3+ goals
18%
Madlenya 1+ goals
67%
Madlenya 2+ goals
30%
Madlenya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rangers FC (draw refunded)
61%
Madlenya (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Madlenya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.90 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers FC attack 1.02 + Madlenya defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.46

Madlenya attack 0.85 + Rangers FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rangers FC scores more
45%
level
26%
Madlenya scores more
29%

Rangers FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Rangers FC 0–0 Madlenya

Rangers FC and Madlenya drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.