Rangers de Talca 0–0 Magallanes: Result & Stats

Rangers de Talca

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Magallanes

8/23/2025

Primera B · Round 22Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Rangers de Talca38%

×Draw27%

Magallanes35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers de TalcaExpected goals in this matchMagallanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.20

Rangers de Talca

1.25

Magallanes

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 104 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.27

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Rangers de Talca

1.29

Magallanes

1.13

allows per match

Rangers de Talca

1.27

Magallanes

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers de Talca ↓

Magallanes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rangers de Talca or draw

65%

Rangers de Talca or Magallanes

73%

Draw or Magallanes

62%

Winning margin

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+

16%

Magallanes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals

71%

Rangers de Talca 2+ goals

36%

Rangers de Talca 3+ goals

13%

Magallanes 1+ goals

70%

Magallanes 2+ goals

34%

Magallanes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)

52%

Magallanes (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers de Talca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 124 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers de Talca attack 1.29 + Magallanes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rangers de Talca scores more

38%

level

27%

Magallanes scores more

35%

Rangers de Talca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rangers de Talca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff