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Rangers de Talca vs Fernández Vial — Primera B 2018

Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
7/2/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 18Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rangers de Talca40%
×Draw27%
Fernández Vial33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers de Talca
1.34
Fernández Vial
1.19

Rangers de Talca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rangers de Talca
1.29
Fernández Vial
1.10

allows per match

Rangers de Talca
1.27
Fernández Vial
1.39

finishing

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers de Talca ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rangers de Talca or draw
67%
Rangers de Talca or Fernández Vial
73%
Draw or Fernández Vial
60%

Winning margin

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
18%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
74%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
39%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
15%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
70%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
33%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
55%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers de Talca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 124 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers de Talca attack 1.29 + Fernández Vial defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fernández Vial attack 1.10 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rangers de Talca scores more
40%
level
27%
Fernández Vial scores more
33%

Rangers de Talca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rangers de Talca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Rangers de Talca 1–3 Fernández Vial

Fernández Vial beat Rangers de Talca 3-1 in Primera B on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.