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Rangers de Talca vs D. Melipilla — Primera B 2018

Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
8/18/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 19Estadio Fiscal de Talca (Talca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Rangers de Talca41%
×Draw27%
D. Melipilla32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers de Talca
1.35
D. Melipilla
1.16

Rangers de Talca creates 16% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 52 away

creates per match

Rangers de Talca
1.29
D. Melipilla
1.04

allows per match

Rangers de Talca
1.27
D. Melipilla
1.42

finishing

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers de Talca ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rangers de Talca or draw
68%
Rangers de Talca or D. Melipilla
73%
Draw or D. Melipilla
59%

Winning margin

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
19%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
74%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
39%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
15%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
69%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
32%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
56%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers de Talca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 124 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers de Talca attack 1.29 + D. Melipilla defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

D. Melipilla attack 1.04 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rangers de Talca scores more
41%
level
27%
D. Melipilla scores more
32%

Rangers de Talca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rangers de Talca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers de Talca vs D. Melipilla

Rangers de Talca beat D. Melipilla 2-0 in Primera B on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca (Talca).