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D. Melipilla vs Rangers de Talca — Primera B 2018

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
7/12/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 19Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

D. Melipilla44%
×Draw28%
Rangers de Talca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.32
Rangers de Talca
0.99

D. Melipilla creates 33% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 124 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.25
Rangers de Talca
1.11

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.87
Rangers de Talca
1.40

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Rangers de Talca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
72%
D. Melipilla or Rangers de Talca
72%
Draw or Rangers de Talca
56%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
20%
Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
73%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
38%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
15%
Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
63%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
26%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
61%
Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

Rangers de Talca away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.25 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rangers de Talca attack 1.11 + D. Melipilla defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
44%
level
28%
Rangers de Talca scores more
28%

D. Melipilla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Rangers de Talca

Rangers de Talca beat D. Melipilla 2-1 in Primera B on July 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.