Ranger's 0–1 UE Santa Coloma: Result & Stats

Ranger's

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UE Santa Coloma

5/4/2025

1a Divisió · Round 25Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ranger's41%

×Draw24%

UE Santa Coloma35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ranger'sExpected goals in this matchUE Santa Coloma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.44

Ranger's

1.59

UE Santa Coloma

1.44

Ranger's creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 91 away

2.25

creates per match

1.89

1.00

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Ranger's

2.25

UE Santa Coloma

1.89

allows per match

Ranger's

1.00

UE Santa Coloma

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ranger's+0.00on par

UE Santa Coloma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranger's ↓

UE Santa Coloma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ranger's or draw

65%

Ranger's or UE Santa Coloma

76%

Draw or UE Santa Coloma

59%

Winning margin

Ranger's wins by 2+

21%

UE Santa Coloma wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ranger's 1+ goals

80%

Ranger's 2+ goals

47%

Ranger's 3+ goals

21%

UE Santa Coloma 1+ goals

76%

UE Santa Coloma 2+ goals

42%

UE Santa Coloma 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ranger's (draw refunded)

54%

UE Santa Coloma (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranger's at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

UE Santa Coloma away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranger's attack 2.25 + UE Santa Coloma defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

UE Santa Coloma attack 1.89 + Ranger's defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ranger's scores more

41%

level

24%

UE Santa Coloma scores more

35%

Ranger's at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ranger's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff