Ranger's 0–5 UE Engordany: Result & Stats

Ranger's

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

UE Engordany

1/16/2022

Copa Constitució · 1st RoundCentre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ranger's4%

×Draw10%

UE Engordany86%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ranger'sExpected goals in this matchUE Engordany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.47

2.92

Ranger's

0.47

UE Engordany

2.92

UE Engordany creates 521% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

0.20

creates per match

3.25

2.60

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Ranger's

0.20

UE Engordany

3.25

allows per match

Ranger's

2.60

UE Engordany

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ranger's+0.00on par

UE Engordany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranger's ↓

UE Engordany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–110%

0–215%

0–314%

0–411%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ranger's or draw

14%

Ranger's or UE Engordany

90%

Draw or UE Engordany

96%

Winning margin

Ranger's wins by 2+

1%

UE Engordany wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Ranger's 1+ goals

37%

Ranger's 2+ goals

8%

Ranger's 3+ goals

1%

UE Engordany 1+ goals

94%

UE Engordany 2+ goals

78%

UE Engordany 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Ranger's (draw refunded)

4%

UE Engordany (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranger's at home — creates 0.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

UE Engordany away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranger's attack 0.20 + UE Engordany defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.47

UE Engordany attack 3.25 + Ranger's defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Ranger's scores more

4%

level

10%

UE Engordany scores more

86%

UE Engordany at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "UE Engordany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff