Ranger's 0–1 Pas de la Casa: Result & Stats

Ranger's

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pas de la Casa

12/15/2024

1a Divisió · Round 12Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ranger's51%

×Draw25%

Pas de la Casa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ranger'sExpected goals in this matchPas de la Casa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.06

Ranger's

1.65

Pas de la Casa

1.06

Ranger's creates 56% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

2.25

creates per match

1.12

1.00

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Ranger's

2.25

Pas de la Casa

1.12

allows per match

Ranger's

1.00

Pas de la Casa

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ranger's+0.00on par

Pas de la Casa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranger's ↓

Pas de la Casa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ranger's or draw

76%

Ranger's or Pas de la Casa

75%

Draw or Pas de la Casa

49%

Winning margin

Ranger's wins by 2+

27%

Pas de la Casa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ranger's 1+ goals

81%

Ranger's 2+ goals

49%

Ranger's 3+ goals

23%

Pas de la Casa 1+ goals

65%

Pas de la Casa 2+ goals

29%

Pas de la Casa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ranger's (draw refunded)

68%

Pas de la Casa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranger's at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Pas de la Casa away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranger's attack 2.25 + Pas de la Casa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pas de la Casa attack 1.12 + Ranger's defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ranger's scores more

51%

level

25%

Pas de la Casa scores more

24%

Ranger's at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ranger's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff