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Ranger's vs La Massana — 1a Divisió 2019

Ranger's
Ranger's
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
La Massana
La Massana
3/30/20251a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 21Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ranger's82%
×Draw12%
La Massana6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranger's
2.97
La Massana
0.72

Ranger's creates 313% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ranger's
2.25
La Massana
0.44

allows per match

Ranger's
1.00
La Massana
3.69

finishing

Ranger's+0.00on par
La Massana+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranger's ↓

La Massana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ranger's or draw
94%
Ranger's or La Massana
88%
Draw or La Massana
18%

Winning margin

Ranger's wins by 2+
62%
La Massana wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ranger's 1+ goals
95%
Ranger's 2+ goals
79%
Ranger's 3+ goals
56%
La Massana 1+ goals
51%
La Massana 2+ goals
16%
La Massana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ranger's (draw refunded)
93%
La Massana (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranger's at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

La Massana away — creates 0.44, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranger's attack 2.25 + La Massana defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.97

La Massana attack 0.44 + Ranger's defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Ranger's scores more
82%
level
12%
La Massana scores more
6%

Ranger's at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Ranger's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ranger's vs La Massana

Ranger's beat La Massana 5-0 in 1a Divisió on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.