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Ranger's vs Esperança d'Andorra — 1a Divisió 2019

Ranger's
Ranger's
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Esperança d'Andorra
Esperança d'Andorra
9/15/20241a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 1Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ranger's71%
×Draw16%
Esperança d'Andorra13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranger's
2.59
Esperança d'Andorra
1.01

Ranger's creates 156% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ranger's
2.25
Esperança d'Andorra
1.02

allows per match

Ranger's
1.00
Esperança d'Andorra
2.93

finishing

Ranger's+0.00on par
Esperança d'Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranger's ↓

Esperança d'Andorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ranger's or draw
87%
Ranger's or Esperança d'Andorra
84%
Draw or Esperança d'Andorra
29%

Winning margin

Ranger's wins by 2+
49%
Esperança d'Andorra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ranger's 1+ goals
92%
Ranger's 2+ goals
73%
Ranger's 3+ goals
47%
Esperança d'Andorra 1+ goals
64%
Esperança d'Andorra 2+ goals
27%
Esperança d'Andorra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ranger's (draw refunded)
85%
Esperança d'Andorra (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranger's at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Esperança d'Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranger's attack 2.25 + Esperança d'Andorra defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.59

Esperança d'Andorra attack 1.02 + Ranger's defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ranger's scores more
71%
level
16%
Esperança d'Andorra scores more
13%

Ranger's at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ranger's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ranger's vs Esperança d'Andorra

Ranger's beat Esperança d'Andorra 4-0 in 1a Divisió on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.