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Randesund vs Vindbjart — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Randesund
Randesund
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vindbjart
Vindbjart
6/22/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 12Sukkevann kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Randesund33%
×Draw22%
Vindbjart45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randesund
1.65
Vindbjart
1.97

Vindbjart creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Randesund
1.58
Vindbjart
1.56

allows per match

Randesund
2.38
Vindbjart
1.72

finishing

Randesund+0.00on par
Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randesund ↓

Vindbjart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Randesund or draw
55%
Randesund or Vindbjart
78%
Draw or Vindbjart
67%

Winning margin

Randesund wins by 2+
16%
Vindbjart wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Randesund 1+ goals
81%
Randesund 2+ goals
49%
Randesund 3+ goals
23%
Vindbjart 1+ goals
86%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
58%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Randesund (draw refunded)
42%
Vindbjart (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randesund at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.38 · 26 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randesund attack 1.58 + Vindbjart defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vindbjart attack 1.56 + Randesund defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Randesund scores more
33%
level
22%
Vindbjart scores more
45%

Vindbjart at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Randesund vs Vindbjart

Randesund beat Vindbjart 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sukkevann kunstgress in Kristiansand.