Randesund 3–0 Fredrikstad II: Result & Stats

Randesund

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fredrikstad II

8/21/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 17Sukkevann kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Randesund35%

×Draw20%

Fredrikstad II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RandesundExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

2.25

Randesund

1.97

Fredrikstad II

2.25

Fredrikstad II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.58

creates per match

2.12

2.38

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Randesund

1.58

Fredrikstad II

2.12

allows per match

Randesund

2.38

Fredrikstad II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Randesund+0.00on par

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randesund ↓

Fredrikstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Randesund or draw

55%

Randesund or Fredrikstad II

80%

Draw or Fredrikstad II

65%

Winning margin

Randesund wins by 2+

18%

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Randesund 1+ goals

86%

Randesund 2+ goals

58%

Randesund 3+ goals

31%

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

89%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

65%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Randesund (draw refunded)

44%

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randesund at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.38 · 26 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randesund attack 1.58 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.97

Fredrikstad II attack 2.12 + Randesund defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Randesund scores more

35%

level

20%

Fredrikstad II scores more

45%

Fredrikstad II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff