Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Randesund vs Donn — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Randesund
Randesund
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Donn
Donn
10/14/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 24Sukkevann kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Randesund60%
×Draw17%
Donn23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randesund
3.10
Donn
1.96

Randesund creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Randesund
1.58
Donn
1.54

allows per match

Randesund
2.38
Donn
4.62

finishing

Randesund+0.00on par
Donn+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randesund ↓

Donn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Randesund or draw
77%
Randesund or Donn
83%
Draw or Donn
40%

Winning margin

Randesund wins by 2+
41%
Donn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Randesund 1+ goals
95%
Randesund 2+ goals
81%
Randesund 3+ goals
58%
Donn 1+ goals
86%
Donn 2+ goals
58%
Donn 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Randesund (draw refunded)
72%
Donn (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randesund at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.38 · 26 matches

Donn away — creates 1.54, concedes 4.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randesund attack 1.58 + Donn defence 4.62 → ÷2 → 3.10

Donn attack 1.54 + Randesund defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Randesund scores more
60%
level
17%
Donn scores more
23%

Randesund at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Randesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Randesund vs Donn

Donn beat Randesund 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sukkevann kunstgress in Kristiansand.