Randers Freja 5–2 Holstebro: Result & Stats

Randers Freja

FT

5 – 2

Holstebro

10/13/2012

League #126 · Round 10Kunstgræsbanen AutoC Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Randers Freja61%

×Draw18%

Holstebro20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Randers FrejaExpected goals in this matchHolstebro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.46

Randers Freja

2.60

Holstebro

1.46

Randers Freja creates 78% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.71

creates per match

1.50

1.43

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Randers Freja

2.71

Holstebro

1.50

allows per match

Randers Freja

1.43

Holstebro

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Randers Freja+0.00on par

Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers Freja ↓

Holstebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Randers Freja or draw

80%

Randers Freja or Holstebro

82%

Draw or Holstebro

39%

Winning margin

Randers Freja wins by 2+

41%

Holstebro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Randers Freja 1+ goals

92%

Randers Freja 2+ goals

73%

Randers Freja 3+ goals

47%

Holstebro 1+ goals

77%

Holstebro 2+ goals

43%

Holstebro 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Randers Freja (draw refunded)

75%

Holstebro (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers Freja at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Holstebro away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers Freja attack 2.71 + Holstebro defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.60

Holstebro attack 1.50 + Randers Freja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Randers Freja scores more

61%

level

18%

Holstebro scores more

20%

Randers Freja at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Randers Freja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff