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Holstebro vs Randers Freja — League #127 2026

Holstebro
Holstebro
FT
3 – 1
Randers Freja
Randers Freja
8/28/2016League #127League #127 · Round 4Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Holstebro75%
×Draw13%
Randers Freja12%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstebro
3.67
Randers Freja
1.50

Holstebro creates 145% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Holstebro
2.67
Randers Freja
1.33

allows per match

Holstebro
1.67
Randers Freja
4.67

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par
Randers Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Randers Freja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw
88%
Holstebro or Randers Freja
87%
Draw or Randers Freja
25%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+
57%
Randers Freja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals
97%
Holstebro 2+ goals
87%
Holstebro 3+ goals
68%
Randers Freja 1+ goals
78%
Randers Freja 2+ goals
44%
Randers Freja 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)
86%
Randers Freja (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Randers Freja away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 2.67 + Randers Freja defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.67

Randers Freja attack 1.33 + Holstebro defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Holstebro scores more
75%
level
13%
Randers Freja scores more
12%

Holstebro at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holstebro vs Randers Freja

Holstebro beat Randers Freja 3-1 in League #127 on August 28, 2016.

The match was played at Holstebro Idrætspark in Holstebro.