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Randers FC vs Viborg — Superliga 2018

Randers FC
Randers FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Viborg
Viborg
7/28/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 2Cepheus Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Randers FC40%
×Draw25%
Viborg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randers FC
1.46
Viborg
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 80 away

creates per match

Randers FC
1.40
Viborg
1.38

allows per match

Randers FC
1.31
Viborg
1.51

finishing

Randers FC+0.00on par
Viborg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

Viborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw
65%
Randers FC or Viborg
75%
Draw or Viborg
60%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+
19%
Viborg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals
77%
Randers FC 2+ goals
43%
Randers FC 3+ goals
18%
Viborg 1+ goals
74%
Viborg 2+ goals
39%
Viborg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)
54%
Viborg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.31 · 132 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.40 + Viborg defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Viborg attack 1.38 + Randers FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Randers FC scores more
40%
level
25%
Viborg scores more
35%

Randers FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Randers FC 3–1 Viborg

Randers FC beat Viborg 3-1 in Superliga on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Cepheus Park Randers in Randers.