Randers FC 1–0 Viborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Randers FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viborg

M. Fuseini 35'

5/15/2024

Superliga · Relegation Round - 8Cepheus Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Randers FC38%

×Draw24%

Viborg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Randers FCExpected goals in this matchViborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.54

Randers FC

1.52

Viborg

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

1.79

1.28

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Randers FC

1.50

Viborg

1.79

allows per match

Randers FC

1.28

Viborg

1.55

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Randers FC-0.18scores less

Viborg-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

Viborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw

62%

Randers FC or Viborg

76%

Draw or Viborg

62%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+

18%

Viborg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals

78%

Randers FC 2+ goals

45%

Randers FC 3+ goals

20%

Viborg 1+ goals

79%

Viborg 2+ goals

45%

Viborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)

49%

Viborg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 22 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.55 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.50 + Viborg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Viborg attack 1.79 + Randers FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Randers FC scores more

38%

level

24%

Viborg scores more

38%

Randers FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Carlgren

Randers FC · G

7.5

Match Events

35'

M. Fuseini

59'

Hugo Andersson

60'

S. Hansen← F. Lauenborg

62'

Mads Söndergaard

64'

Lasso Coulibaly

65'

Žan Zaletel

67'

D. Anyembe← S. Kuzmić

67'

I. Said← M. Søndergaard

67'

J. Vester← J. Grønning

78'

S. Odey← M. Fuseini

79'

S. Nordli← J. Björkengren

79'

A. Ementa← I. Jensen

85'

S. Radić← Ž. Zaletel

90+4'

O. Zandén← M. Brajanac

90+4'

J. Kudsk← L. Coulibaly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RandersViborg

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots8

4Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots8

1On Target2

5Off Target4

5Blocked2

2Inside Box6

9Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

374Total Passes452

272Accurate Passes366

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5